METHODS OF NEUTRALIZING RISKS UNDER CONDITIONS OF UNCERTAINTY

Анотація

 Nowadays, in Ukraine's economic environment, uncertainty and risks are constantly growing, especially against the backdrop of war, global economic and political crises, and there is a growing need to improve risk management methods, as evidenced by numerous business surveys by Ukrainian associations. [1, 2]

The main methods of neutralizing risks under conditions of uncertainty include the differentiation of activities, i.e. the allocation of resources between different types of assets or activities to reduce the impact of adverse events in one area on the overall result, which should reduce the concentration of risk and increase the enterprise's resilience to external factors.

In conditions of uncertainty, hedging is used, that is, the use of financial instruments such as forwards, futures, options or swaps, this is a strategy of protection against possible financial risks. The main purpose of hedging is to minimize possible losses that may occur due to fluctuations in prices, exchange rates or changes in interest rates. Hedging is extremely important for businesses that depend on foreign markets or own assets that are subject to price volatility.

The issue of insurance against military risks and insurance in general remains relevant for Ukrainian enterprises, as concluding contracts with insurance companies to compensate for possible losses in the event of a risk allows enterprises to transfer financial risks to third-party organizations, which can be economically beneficial in the long run.

Many large enterprises try to plan scenarios for all cases and hire a risk manager to deal with them. In this way, the company will have a contingency plan for a quick response and will even be able to calculate the financial costs, so usually such scenarios include the creation of a “safety cushion”.

Many companies use information and analytical systems - modern information and analytical platforms that allow them to quickly process data, predict risks and develop adaptive solutions in real time [3]. These systems are capable of collecting, processing, and analyzing large amounts of data, as well as providing forecasts and recommendations for effective response to changing factors. Such systems can integrate with external sources of information, monitor news, financial indicators, market events, and thus facilitate quick and informed decision-making. They include SAP BusinessObjects (which allows identifying risks through interactive reports and data visualization, which is especially useful for large companies with a branched structure), IBM Cognos Analytics (thanks to built-in artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms), Cognos Analytics is able to predict risks, analyze historical data and give recommendations on minimizing possible threats), Microsoft Power BI (creation of dashboards and analytical reports, allows you to quickly identify anomalies and negative trends that may cause risks), etc. [4, 5, 6]

All in all, effective risk management under conditions of uncertainty requires an integrated approach, including the use of various methods depending on the specifics of the enterprise, available resources and market conditions.